The OBR’s forecast relies on households saving less so they can keep spending, but with little in the bank, most will have to borrow instead. Our measure of household debt burdens shows that this leaves households little to spare. Plausible shocks could push debt stress back to the levels seen before the financial crisis.

The FCA’s affordability rules have been in force since 2018. So why are lenders still lending to households who can’t afford the essentials?

‘Financial inclusion’ should help people withstand financial shocks, not deepen them. Yet the current agenda focuses overwhelmingly on increasing access to credit per se, rather than on credit that people can genuinely afford.

In our response to the FCA’s consultation on credit advertising, we warn against proposals to weaken representative APR rules and cost disclosure protections.